Market Update
Black Friday Madness
Welcome back everyone. Apologies for missing last week’s update. Things have been incredibly busy for me with an upcoming move, and the busyness is set to continue, so please bear with me. The main theme dominating discussions and shopping baskets over the past week was clearly Black Friday / Black Week. I personally managed to grab some useful items. For me, the motto of “Buy low – Sell high” applies just as much here as it does in markets. It was not just stores offering discounts. The markets did too. The S&P 500 was a remarkable 6% off its all time high, an opportunity I certainly took advantage of. All in all, it was a very successful week for me, and I hope it was for you too. Enough chatting, let us dive straight into the market topics.
Latest Data and News in Review: What Moved the Markets?
What was the most important driver over the past two weeks? The narrative around a potential rate cut has shifted sharply. The implied probability for a December rate cut dramatically changed from around 30% to 86% following statements from Governor Williams.
The primary reason for this strong market movement was his stance on the December meeting, where he reportedly stated that further rate cuts were on the table and likely. This is quite contradictory to the generally hawkish tone regarding future monetary policy that Chair Powell presented at the last FOMC meeting. This, combined with lower than expected PPI data, was taken positively by the market and subsequently put downward pressure on the US dollar.
Earnings Recap:
NVIDIA reported record revenue for the third quarter, which ended on October 26, 2025:
Revenue reached $57.0 billion , marking a 22% increase from the previous quarter and a 62% rise year over year.
GAAP and non GAAP gross margins for the quarter were 73.4% and 73.6%, respectively.
Google’s latest Update:
A potentially interesting development is the release of Google’s latest Gemini 3 Pro update last week. The intriguing aspect is that this AI is not based on conventional NVIDIA GPUs but on Tensor Processing Units (TPU) developed by Google itself. The newest version, Ironwood, reportedly has a fourfold higher performance in training and inference compared to its predecessor. This development could become very interesting as this new technology might put significant pressure on conventional AI firms that rely on GPUs, potentially challenging NVIDIA’s near monopoly status. This is a fascinating topic that I will continue to follow closely.
COT Update:
Due to the government shutdown, we experienced a long period without updates. New data from the CFTC have now been released. The update from 25.11.2025 refers to the COT data from 14.10.2025, meaning it is not current. Nonetheless, here is the overview:
NIKKEI: Bullish change, Overall Long 75%
NASDAQ: Bullish change, Overall Long 70%
GBP: Bearish change, Overall Neutral
Gold: Bearish change, Overall Long 78%
DOW: Bearish change, Overall Short 71%
USD: No change, Overall Short 68%
SPX: Slightly bearish change, Overall Short 64%
Gauch Research Risk Meter
The Gauch Research Risk Meter currently indicates a Calm regime, with a Composite-Z Score of 0.19.
What Is Coming Up This Week?
The macroeconomic calendar is relatively light. The main focus will undoubtedly be the FED’s FOMC meeting on December 10th. As mentioned, the market is now anticipating another rate cut, assuming subsequent data or statements do not completely reverse the current sentiment.
The key releases to keep an eye on are the ISM PMI’s (Manufacturing on Tuesday and Services on Wednesday) and the Core PCE Price Index on Friday, which is expected to come in at 0.2%. A significant deviation from this figure could introduce considerable volatility to the market, as this is the FED’s preferred inflation gauge. A strong deviation could either confirm or alter the decisions of individual FED members, so we remain highly interested. I will keep you updated here on Substack.
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